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What are the odds Donald Trump frees Ross Ulbricht?

As one of his many campaign promises to an audience of Bitcoin enthusiasts in July 2024, incoming US President Donald Trump promised to free Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht on his first day in office. Fast-forward to today and that “day one” promise is just six days away. Inauguration Day, which this year coincides with Martin Luther King Jr. Day, will see Joe Biden cede the US Presidency to Trump on Monday, January 20. That will initiate a 24-hour countdown on his commitment to commute the sentence of a man who once owned, prior to his FBI asset forfeiture, the world’s largest darknet marketplace and its 144,000 bitcoins. Importantly, Trump promised to free Ulbricht from prison — not pardon him . A pardon forgives and absolves a guilty verdict. A commutation or reprieve, in contrast, simply terminate some of the penalty for a crime while retaining the determination of guilt. Trump, like all politicians, has promised many things that never actually tra...